That's why Dominic Thiem (not) wins the French Open this year
For Dominic Thiem , the beloved clay court season begins with the ATP 500 tournament in Rio de Janeiro. Reason enough for us to take a look at the Austrian's prospects at the French Open.
by Michael Rothschädl and Nikolaus Fink
last edit: Feb 15, 2020, 07:25 pm
That's why it works in Paris with the first major title
The Austrian knows how it feels. He has known what it feels like to beat Rafael Nadal at the major level since the Australian Open . A success that the 26-year-old himself sees as an extremely important step. Dominic Thiem also knows what it feels like to defeat the Mallorcan on his favorite surface. In the last seven duels on the "red ash" it was three times the Lichtenwörther who was allowed to leave the place as the winner. Of course, in these seven duels the last two finales in Roland Garros are also included, in which Dominic Thiem could never really be dangerous to the Spaniard.
The Austrian has developed further. Dominic Thiem has grown playfully over the past few months. This is shown not least by the great performances on hard court, where the Austrian sometimes did not really want to open the button. Dominic Thiem returns better, makes fewer mistakes without needing to serve the opponent and is therefore always good for relieving his opponents of the service. This will also be necessary with the Spaniard's setback strength - Nadal made an incredible 44 percent of his opponents' serve in 2019.
However, the Austrian not only improved his return game, he also added a facet to his game with the increased use of the backhand slice that was previously missing: security. Of course, it's not the slice of Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal. It is not a slice that his opponents cannot put pressure on. But it is a slice that Thiem rarely makes a mistake with, a slice that keeps the Austrian in the game, a slice that forces the opponent to risk himself. And if the Australian Open showed one thing, it was that Dominic Thiem could win the long rallies against any opponent - no matter whether his name was Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal.
The Austrian is becoming more and more a man for difficult situations. At the Australian Open, the Lichtenwörther won five tie breaks en suite after losing the tie break against Taylor Fritz. Three against Rafael Nadal, two against Alexander Zverev. Of course, when the Austrian was already serving against Rafael Nadal on the match, it turned out that he, too, is not immune to occasional nerve jitter. But a 100 percent tie-break rate against a player with the routine of Rafael Nadal speaks for itself. Last but not least, tight sets will play a decisive role in a victory in Roland Garros.
The Austrian knows how to deal with the competition. Dominic Thiem has played for Rafael Nadal on clear number two in the past few years. Most recently, the 26-year-old had his misery with Novak Djokovic in the final round of the French Open 2019, but Dominic Thiem was nevertheless allowed to leave the place as the winner. There are not many players who can be really dangerous for the Austrian on sand. A fact that the Austrian at best knows how to translate into energy-saving appearances in the first rounds at the French Open.
The Austrian is fit like never before. Not only thanks to the professional preparation with his personal fitness trainer Duglas Cordero, but also because Dominic Thiem is ready to listen to his body. Instead of rushing back into the tournament a week after the exhausting Australian Open , the 26-year-old canceled his start at the ATP 250 event in Buenos Aires to give his body the necessary breather. After a few days off, fitness training with the specially flown Duglas Cordero was on the program anyway.
The Austrian knows Andy Murray's story. The Scot was at the same point where Dominic Thiem is currently. Thiem lost the first three major finals of her career, so there is still waiting for the first Grand Slam title. What should follow in the Scots after the first lost endgames should be enough incentive for the Austrian. But Andy Murray's story should not only be an incentive, it should above all help Dominic Thiem put up with the first three defeats and not drift into a negative world of thoughts in another finale .
The Austrian is ready for his first Grand Slam title. Where, if not on his favorite surface, should it finally work out for Dominic Thiem? Because the Lichtenwörther is not only playful, but also mentally the Austrian now has what it takes to be a Grand Slam Champion. And what could give you more confidence in a possible French Open final against Rafael Nadal than the thought in the back of your head to have eliminated the Spaniard at the major level in the last encounter?
by Michael Rothschädl
That’s why Roland Garros won’t win the first Grand Slam
Of course, it could be made easy for Dominic Thiem to deny the chance of winning the first Grand Slam title with the name of the man who has already been engraved twelve times in the Coupe des Mousquetaires. But it is not Rafael Nadal alone who could cause problems for the Austrian in Roland Garros.
Unlike the Spaniard, Thiem is always good for defeats against blatant outsiders on sand. In the past season, the 26-year-old was defeated on his favorite surface, for example Laslo Djere or Dusan Lajovic, and also suffered unexpected defeats against Fernando Verdasco and Andrey Rublev. This has always been a problem with the Lichtenwörther: unlike the Big Three, Thiem can hardly find solutions on days when things are not going well and lose to almost every opponent.
Dominic Thiem has undoubtedly improved continuously in the past months and years. However, the fourth place in the world ranking has so far failed to provide proof of being able to win a Grand Slam title. In Australia, the Austrian was closer than ever before, but ultimately Novak Djokovic held his ground thanks to the coldness in the decisive moments.
Thiem's lack of rip-off was not only evident in the final of the Australian Open, but also in the 2019 French Open final. While Nadal left the court after the Austrian had equalized, Thiem remained on the pitch and was supposed to cool down afterwards . The Mallorcan knew how to use this immediately - Thiem only won two games in sets three and four.
Another aspect that could make Thiem in Paris troubles is the role of favorites. For the first time in his entire career, the Lichtenwörther will start as one of the two top favorites in a Grand Slam tournament. More media attention means additional pressure - and Thiem was not always able to cope with this, at least during the first attempts at the events in Austria. Whether this will be different in Paris remains to be seen.
It will also show how the Lower Austrian will cope with the new balls in Roland Garros. In recent years, Babolat balls - also Thiem's club manufacturer - have always been used at the French Open; in 2020, felt balls from Wilson will be used. Unlike their predecessors, they should no longer accept so well after the first report after Topspin - Thiem could help against Rafael Nadal, but against Novak Djokovic and Co. this change could be a decisive disadvantage.
The chances of winning a Grand Slam have never been as good as this time. Nevertheless, there are (too) many reasons why Dominic Thiem will not win in Paris in 2020 either. And if the points mentioned above are not sufficient as arguments, there is still a name that Thiem has also feared in the French capital: Rafael Nadal . But the author of these lines didn't want to make it that easy.
by Nikolaus Fink