Australian Open: A "probability of winning" against all reason
If the results were already known in advance, tennis matches would not have to start in the first place. However, some forecasts are far from reality.
by Jens Huiber
last edit: Jan 17, 2022, 05:56 pm
The nice thing about the "Expected Goals Statistics", which TV viewers have been presented with for some time at many football matches, is that, based on a calculation, the great chances, shots on goal, ball possession, possibly also the number of calories in lunch on the field player represented, it is determined after a match how many goals a team should have scored. Reality should be depicted as well as possible, sometimes that doesn't quite work because, as all German football fans have known since Sepp Herberger, the ball is round. And sometimes he just doesn't jump like you should expect him to.
The problem with the “probability of winning” in tennis, however, is that the opponents’ chances are weighed up against each other even before a match (admittedly: this could also be done with the expected goals). A look at the world rankings sometimes helps, but not always. On Monday one could get the impression that the editors responsible for calculating the chances of winning the match between Sofia Kenin and Madison Keys were still living too much in the past. Admittedly, Kenin won the title in Melbourne in 2020 and reached the final of the French Open in the same year. There wasn't much going on for the American last season, mostly due to injuries, of course.
Kenin clear favorite against Keys?
And: Yes, Madison Keys didn't play the stars from the sky in 2021 either. But Keys has come to the Australian Open with the recommendation of a truly impressive tournament win in Adelaide. While Kenin had reached the quarterfinals after her comeback at the first tournament in Adelaide, she lost to Daria Kasatkina in round one in Sydney.
The logical conclusion, which not only led to a frown from Eurosport commentator Oliver Fassnacht: Kenin's chances of winning were 68 percent, while Keys's was only 32 percent. Fassnacht immediately adjusted the ratios to at least fifty-fifty with even slight advantages for Keys - and was right in view of the 7: 6 (2), 7: 5 for the US Open finalist from 2017.
The attempt to spice up the tennis matches by announcing the probability of winning did, however, have one effect: Suddenly it is all the more worthwhile to follow the impact live. To then compare his own expectations with the “official” ones.
Here is the women's individual tableau
laver arena